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The wait for the southwest monsoon over Kerala may continue a little longer.
After earlier projections pointed to an arrival around late May, updated weather assessments now indicate that the monsoon's full-strength onset over Kerala could take more time, with stronger atmospheric support expected only after June 5-6. While parts of Kerala have already experienced pre-monsoon rainfall, the conditions required for an official monsoon declaration are still evolving.
According to recent weather updates and model assessments cited by meteorological reports, the key factor delaying onset is the slower strengthening of upper-level and cross-equatorial wind systems that normally drive the southwest monsoon into the Indian subcontinent.
Why Has The Monsoon Been Delayed?
Meteorologists note that rainfall alone is not enough for declaring monsoon onset.
For the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to officially announce the arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, multiple weather conditions must align simultaneously. These include:
- Sustained rainfall across a required share of designated weather stations in Kerala
- Adequate strength of westerly winds over the Arabian Sea
- Sufficient clouding and atmospheric circulation patterns
While cloud cover and scattered rainfall have appeared across parts of Kerala, reports suggest the wind component has remained weaker than expected.
One explanation being discussed is recent atmospheric activity over the Bay of Bengal, which may have disrupted the establishment of stronger monsoon flow toward southern India.
What Does The Latest Forecast Suggest?
Recent forecast model runs indicate that stronger upper-level easterlies and broader monsoon circulation may become more organised after June 5-6.
That does not mean Kerala will remain completely dry until then.
Instead, weather experts suggest that the initial onset could be gradual rather than dramatic, beginning with intermittent rain before intensifying into a stronger monsoon phase.
The updated outlook also points toward a slower seasonal build-up rather than an abrupt arrival.
Will India Receive Less Rainfall This Season?
Alongside the delayed onset discussion, seasonal projections continue to indicate below-normal rainfall for India overall this year.
Forecast updates have placed seasonal rainfall near 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA); a benchmark used to compare expected rainfall with historical averages collected over decades.
Weather agencies and reports have linked this outlook partly to emerging El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific, which are often associated with reduced monsoon rainfall over India.
However, experts caution that seasonal forecasts evolve continuously and rainfall distribution can still vary significantly across regions.
What It Means For Kerala
For Kerala, the latest outlook suggests the monsoon is close, but not fully established yet.
Residents may continue to see scattered showers and cloudy conditions in the coming days, but the stronger and more consistent southwest monsoon phase could arrive later than initially expected.
As weather systems reorganise over the Arabian Sea and southern India, forecasts may continue to be updated. Until then, Kerala remains in a transition phase between pre-monsoon activity and the official beginning of the rainy season.