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India has experienced a 20 per cent deficit in rainfall since June 1, as reported by PTI. The monsoon showed no significant progress between June 12 and 18, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD expects favourable conditions for the monsoon to advance into Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, northwest Bay of Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand in the next three to four days.
From June 1 to June 18, India recorded 64.5 mm of rainfall, which is 20 per cent less than the long period average (LPA) of 80.6 mm. The rainfall distribution varied significantly across different regions. Northwest India received 10.2 mm (70 per cent less than normal), central India got 50.5 mm (31 per cent less than normal), the south peninsula received 106.6 mm (16 per cent more than normal), and east and northeast India recorded 146.7 mm (15 per cent less than normal).
The southwest monsoon began its advance into parts of the Nicobar Islands on May 19. By May 26, it had covered most of the south and some central Bay of Bengal regions, coinciding with Cyclone Remal. It reached Kerala and the northeastern states by May 30, earlier than usual by two and six days, respectively.
By June 12, the monsoon had spread across Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, most of southern Maharashtra, and some parts of southern Chhattisgarh and Odisha. It also covered most of sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and all northeastern states. The IMD stated, "Thereafter, the monsoon has not progressed, and its northern limit on June 18 passes through Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, and Vizianagaram."
The IMD noted that 11 meteorological sub-divisions experienced normal to large excess rainfall from June 1 to 18, while 25 sub-divisions faced deficient to large deficient rainfall. The forecast indicates that average rainfall in June is likely to be below normal (less than 92 per cent of the LPA). Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in most of the southern peninsula and parts of northeast India.
However, below-normal rainfall is anticipated in many areas of northwest and adjoining central India, as well as some parts of northeast India. The IMD had earlier mentioned in a May-end press conference that the country might see above-normal rainfall during the four-month monsoon season (June to September), with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 per cent of the LPA of 87 cm.
India's core monsoon zone, which covers most rain-fed agricultural areas, is predicted to receive above-normal rainfall this season. The monsoon is vital for agriculture in India, as 52 per cent of the net cultivated area depends on it. It also replenishes reservoirs that are crucial for drinking water and power generation.
June and July are critical for agriculture, as most sowing for the Kharif crop occurs during these months. Scientists noted that El Nino conditions are currently prevailing, and La Nina may arrive by August-September. El Nino, characterised by the warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, is linked to weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. Conversely, La Nina results in abundant rainfall during the monsoon season.
The IMD projects above-normal monsoon rainfall in central and south peninsular regions and normal rainfall in the northwest. Northeast India might experience below-normal monsoon rainfall. This seasonal rainfall is crucial for the agricultural landscape and reservoir replenishment, impacting water supply and energy production.
Understanding these weather patterns is essential for farmers and policymakers to make informed decisions. The monsoon's behaviour directly affects India's economy, given its significant reliance on agriculture. Thus, keeping a close watch on these developments is imperative for the nation's well-being.
