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Heavy rainfall in Kerala's Wayanad district has led to devastating landslides, resulting in 123 deaths and 128 injuries. Many individuals are feared trapped under the debris. Studies indicate that climate change, fragile terrain, and deforestation have significantly contributed to these landslides.
The Indian Space Research Organisation's (ISRO) National Remote Sensing Centre released a landslide atlas last year. It identified 10 of India's 30 most landslide-prone districts as being in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked 13th. The report highlighted that 0.09 million square kilometres in the Western Ghats and Konkan hills are prone to landslides.
Climate Change and Rainfall Patterns
S Abhilash, director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), explained that warming of the Arabian Sea is causing deep cloud systems to form. This leads to extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala over shorter periods, increasing the likelihood of landslides. "Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above this region, including Kerala, to become thermodynamically unstable," Abhilash said.
Research by Abhilash and other scientists published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science journal in 2022 found that rainfall over India's west coast is becoming more convective. Convective rainfall involves intense showers or thunderstorms over small areas for short durations.
Impact of Deforestation
A study published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health showed significant forest cover loss in Wayanad between 1950 and 2018. During this period, forest cover decreased by 62 per cent while plantation areas increased by around 1,800 per cent. Until the 1950s, approximately 85 per cent of Wayanad was covered by forests.
According to a study published by Springer in 2021, all landslide hotspots in Kerala are located in the Western Ghats region. These areas include Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode, and Malappuram districts. The study revealed that about 59 per cent of landslides in Kerala occurred in plantation areas.
Unheeded Warnings
The Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel recommended declaring the entire hill range an ecologically sensitive area divided into zones based on ecological sensitivity. In 2011, it suggested banning mining, quarrying, new thermal power plants, hydropower projects, and large-scale wind energy projects in ecologically sensitive zone 1. However, these recommendations have not been implemented due to resistance from state governments, industries, and local communities.
Another study by Abhilash and scientists from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and India Meteorological Department found a southward shift in one of the heavy rainfall hotspots in the Konkan region. This shift could have fatal consequences as it increases rainfall intensity on high- to mid-land slopes during monsoon seasons.
Scientists believe climate change is making landslides more likely in the Western Ghats. This region is one of the world's eight "hottest hotspots" for biological diversity.
The vulnerability of inhabitants is higher due to dense populations and households in Kerala's Western Ghats region. The combination of climate change effects and environmental neglect has created a dangerous situation for residents living there.
