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Recent downpours in many parts of Southern and Western parts of India disrupted the life. Mumbai's life-line halted at stations, Bangalore witnessed jam-packed traffic in many areas, Chennai recalled the 2015 flood. Coastal part of Andhra Pradesh was badly hit. Among the all, Wayanad Landslide was the most horrible climate event. All these happened when 2024 monsoon was on the down side. Don't forget the extreme hot days in July and August as well. Yes, the climate shift is clearly visible in India in the form of extreme weather events.
If you talk about India's monsoon season in 2024, significant rainfall patterns observed throughout the country. The country experienced an above-normal monsoon, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reporting a total rainfall of 934.8 mm from June to September. This figure exceeds the long-term seasonal average of 868.6 mm, marking a substantial increase to 108% of the norm.
El Nino impacts precipitation
The onset of June saw a reduced rainfall due to the influence of El Nino, known for its correlation with lower-than-average monsoon showers, resulting in an 11% deficit. However, the situation quickly shifted as the El Nino Southern Oscillation moved back to a neutral state, allowing the monsoon to intensify and bring abundant rains from July onwards.
In a detailed breakdown of the monsoon's impact, it was found that 340 out of 729 districts across India received normal rainfall levels, while 158 districts enjoyed excess moisture. Impressively, 48 districts were categorized under the 'large excess rainfall' bracket. Conversely, 167 districts experienced a shortfall in rainfall, and 11 districts faced a significantly larger deficit.
Record-breaking rainfall events this year
2024 witnessed a record-breaking number of heavy rainfall events, the highest in the past five years. The month of June saw the second-highest count of 'very heavy rainfall' episodes in the same period, whereas July recorded the second-most 'extremely heavy rainfall' instances. August and September continued the trend, with 753 and 525 weather stations, respectively, reporting very heavy rainfall, the highest numbers noted since 2020.
Impact of Climate change
The role of climate change in these patterns cannot be understated. The monsoon systems are lasting longer, with weather systems increasingly veering from Central India southwards from their usual path. This alteration in weather trajectories coincides with a consistent rise in global warming, which has led to a steady increase in minimum temperatures across India. In fact, the country recorded its highest night temperature anomaly at 0.61 degrees Celsius during this period. Central India, in particular, has consistently reported higher night temperatures throughout the monsoon season.
Despite the excessive rains brought on by the monsoon, the persistently rising global temperatures underscore the complex relationship between weather patterns and climate change. This phenomenon has led to a unique situation where, despite plentiful monsoon rains, the increase in minimum temperatures signals an underlying environmental challenge that continues to affect India's climate.
What Experts Says
According to Dr. K J Ramesh, Former Director General of the India Meteorological Department, over the past 5-6 years, weather systems that typically followed a northward path have been moving through Central India. This shift in rainfall patterns is influenced by global warming, as well as phenomena like El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Climate change has contributed to more intense rainfall over shorter durations. Additionally, the longevity of monsoon systems has increased due to consecutive weather systems, leading to soil saturation. When these systems pass over saturated areas, the soil provides momentum similar to what is seen over the ocean-though not of the same magnitude, it still extends the lifespan of these weather systems.
Aarti Khosla, Founder & Director of Climate Trends, stated, "In addition to tracking monsoon performance, it's crucial to monitor the spatial distribution of rainfall across the country. A significant portion of rainfall now comes from extreme weather events. Whether it was 2023, a drought year, or 2024, which saw above-normal rains, the consistent rise in extreme weather events is driven by increasing average temperatures. Our focus should now shift towards developing a comprehensive adaptation strategy to protect lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems from the overlapping climate impacts affecting the country's diverse geography."
