Click it and Unblock the Notifications
An alarming report has been released by the India Meteorological Department saying that the increase in glacial lakes across the Himalayas due to rising temperatures continues and because of that the snow on the top peaks has been reduced forming more glacial lakes. These lakes are a potential disaster threat to the Himalayan region.
Climate change and the increasing temperature are the culprits for the glacier recession. Not only the new glacial lakes have been formed, but the existing ones are also being expanded across the Himalayas. Many pose a potential glacial lake outburst flood threat to downstream communities and infrastructure.
What are glacial lakes?
Glacial lakes are bodies of water that form in depressions or basins created by glacial activity. They are typically found in regions where glaciers have previously existed or where they currently exist. Glacial lakes are primarily fed by the melting of glacial ice. These lakes can vary greatly in size, shape, and depth, depending on factors such as the size of the glacier, the terrain, and the local climate conditions. These lakes have irregular shapes and may be surrounded by cliffs or moraines, which are deposits of rock and sediment left behind by retreating glaciers.
4950 glacial lakes in the region
According to the IMD, these highly dynamic water reservoirs respond to climate change by expanding in number, size, and volume. The number (area) of glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush Himalayas increased from 4549 lakes (398.9 sq. km ) in 1990 to 4950 lakes (455.3 sq.km) in 2015.
According to a recent report on the Himalayas by the University of Zurich This is particularly evident across the mountains of Asia, including in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalayas (HKH), Tien Shan, and Tibet. Several large-scale and regional assessment studies confirm the growth of glacial lakes and their hazardous potential across Asia.
In terms of potential disaster, Jammu and Kashmir stand out with the highest combined exposure, boasting a total of 556 lakes categorized as very high and high danger. This is followed by Arunachal Pradesh with 388 lakes and Sikkim with 219 lakes. J&K faces the greatest threat to roads and population from flood-like disasters, while Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim face the highest threats to cropland and hydropower, respectively.
Liquid Threats on the Peaks
The lakes identified as the highest priority for urgent monitoring and local site investigations include 13 in Sikkim, 5 in Himachal Pradesh, 4 in Jammu & Kashmir, 2 in Uttarakhand, and 1 in Arunachal Pradesh. These liquid threats require immediate attention for local investigation and potential risk reduction measures. Such findings are crucial for policymakers, disaster management authorities, and the scientific community.
In Jammu and Kashmir, exposure to threats intensifies from remote areas in the northeast towards the southwest, where lakes pose threats to densely populated regions in and around the Srinagar valley. Additionally, the current threat potentially impacts the foothill areas of non-Indian Himalayan Region states, such as northern West Bengal. The high exposure levels in Jammu & Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, and Sikkim are attributed to intense agricultural activities, dense road networks, and relatively high population densities situated in the inner Himalayan valleys, all of which are susceptible to GLOF trajectories.
Himalayan Glaciars in 2050?
According to the State of the Cryosphere Report 2023, if a 2°C warming threshold is reached, projections indicate that nearly all tropical glaciers (North Andes, Africa) and most mid-latitude glaciers outside the Himalayas and polar regions will disappear, with some vanishing as early as 2050. Even the Himalayas are expected to lose approximately 50% of their current ice at 2°C.
Beyond a 3°C increase, even most large polar glaciers and the very high-altitude glaciers in the Himalayas and southern Andes are unlikely to survive. However, under a low emissions scenario, glacier loss in the Hindu Kush Himalayas could be limited to 30%.
Water scarcity and heightened avalanche risks
Water scarcity and heightened avalanche risks are interconnected consequences of glacier melt. As glaciers retreat, the likelihood of catastrophic events such as landslides, sudden ice shears, and glacial lake outburst floods escalates. These events pose threats not only to nearby communities but also to those downstream that rely on glacier-fed water sources for drinking and irrigation. While these sources may contribute only a small percentage of water throughout the year, their significance amplifies during dry seasons, heatwaves, and droughts.
The winter snowpack is anticipated to diminish at a 2°C warming threshold, yet it will also become more unpredictable. Some years may experience minimal snowfall, while others may see record-breaking amounts, endangering infrastructure and lives. Indeed, many glacier-covered regions, excluding high-latitude polar areas and the Himalayas, have already surpassed the point of "peak water."
Regarding avalanche risk, the Western Indian Himalayas have witnessed increased snow avalanche occurrences in recent decades due to warming trends. Powder snow avalanches are more prevalent during intense snow precipitation in cold winter conditions, whereas wet and dense flows often coincide with warm spells towards late winter and early spring.
As climatic conditions evolve, avalanche activity may also undergo modifications, with land cover changes such as afforestation and deforestation likely playing contributing roles. According to weather models, the probability of snow avalanches is highest when warmer temperatures persist during these months.
Given these projections, comprehensive adaptation efforts must commence promptly to address future challenges, even as mitigation strategies aimed at preserving glaciers gain priority.
