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The 2023 Indian Summer Monsoon season has come and gone, however, its unpredictable performance has left a trail of questions in its wake. One question that stands out is whether climate change is disrupting the typical behavior of the Asian monsoon system.
The season was marked by extreme instances of rainfall in northern India leading to catastrophic floods, contrasted by drought-like conditions in parts of east and northeast India. These climate anomalies, significantly influenced by the El Nino year, reflect a harsh reality: climate change does exacerbate monsoon irregularities.
The Challenging Monsoon of 2023
The 2023 monsoon season presented a mix of unusual rainfall trends. Observations indicate a -10% departure from regular rainfall in June and as much as -36% in August compared to the average. Regional assessments reveal that east and northeast India showed a -19% departure from normal rainfall, while the Southern Peninsula witnessed a -8% departure.
In the traditionally core monsoon month of August, a significant shortfall was observed, marking it as the all-time low of the century, primarily due to prolonged 'break monsoon' conditions. Alarmingly, a staggering rainfall deficiency was reported from Gujarat (90.67%), Kerala (86.61%), Rajasthan (80.15%), Karnataka (74.16%), and Telangana (64.66%).
Climate scientists attribute the unusual monsoon pattern to the increase in the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture for extended periods. They pin this change on the ongoing rise in land and sea temperatures due to climate change. In what only happened for the third time in a century, break-monsoon conditions caused the monsoon trough to shift from Northwest and Central India to the Himalayas, resulting in excessive rainfall and flooding in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Despite the overwhelming fluctuations, from a statistical standpoint, the Indian Meteorological Department categorizes Monsoon 2023 under 'normal' rainfall due to a merely 6% deficit of the long period average (LPA). However, this overarching percentage misrepresents the underlying regional disparities. Out of 717 districts, 221 reported deficient to largely deficient rainfall as of September 29, 2023.
Influence of Cyclone Biparjoy
The four-month-long monsoon season was dominated by a series of extreme weather events collectively resulting in a challenging monsoon. The onset of the monsoon over Kerala and the culmination of Cyclone Biparjoy marked the beginning of this erratic season. In a surprising turn of events, as the cyclone intensified, it effectively drained the country of moisture, stalling the monsoon's progress and causing a severe rain deficiency during June. Consequently, portions of East India experienced extended periods of humid heatwaves owing to the absence of monsoon showers, a trend worsened by global warming due to excessive evaporation and moisture retention in the atmosphere.
The Ongoing Climate Change Crisis
Fluctuations in monsoon rainfall, although normal, seem to have escalated due to climate change. Experts believe that climate change has brought dry years to an extreme low and wet years to a dramatic high, leading to increased instances of drought and floods, which pose challenges to water and food security. Damaging rains in Haryana, Punjab, and Delhi caused displacement of thousands of inhabitants while fatal flash floods in Himachal Pradesh resulted in over a hundred casualties due to landslides and structural collapses.
Expert Opinion: The Intensifying Monsoon Phenomenon
Climate Scientist Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, suggests that a rise in land and sea temperatures has increased the air's capacity to retain moisture for an extended period affecting the intensity of monsoon rains. He mentions how the warming Arabian Sea has sent more moisture over northern and northwestern India, leading to increased rainfall and subsequent extreme weather events.
India's haphazard relationship with monsoons is not new, but the frequency and intensity of these weather phenomena are certainly alarming. In the last five decades, extreme floods have risen four-fold. While only three extreme floods occurred per year on average between 1970 and 2004, the number increased to 11 on average annually after 2005. With global warming on the upswing, the potential impact on crop production by the end of the century could be devastating for South Asia – up to a shocking 50% reduction.
In conclusion, the 2023 Indian Summer Monsoon has presented a glimpse of how the changing climate can stir monsoons towards unpredictability, reinforcing the dire need to intensify responsive measures to counter this imminent threat to life, livelihoods, and ecosystems. Concerted climate action based on sound scientific understanding must inform policy decisions for adaptive and resilient strategies that not only preserve the ecological balance but also safeguard the socio-economic backbone of the country.
