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Himalayan Glaciers' Drastic Decline by 2100: Dire Predictions from New Studies
The Himalayan glaciers, lifelines for nearly 2 billion people across South and East Asia, are facing an alarming future. Two recent studies, published in the journals Science Advances and Science, have painted a stark picture of the potential consequences of global warming on these glaciers. These majestic ice formations constitute around 15% of the world's total ice mass.
Study 1: Utrecht University's Findings
The first study, spearheaded by researchers from Utrecht University in the Netherlands, delivered sobering news. It suggested that if the current pace of global warming persists, over half of the Himalayan glaciers could vanish by the close of this century. Even if the world manages to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as stipulated in the Paris Climate Agreement, this study anticipates a 36% loss of glaciers by 2100. However, if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, this number could surge to a staggering 64% loss.
Study 2: Carnegie Mellon University's Insights
The second study, led by scientists from Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, delved into the global impact of glacier loss. It projected that with a 1.5°C temperature increase, half of the world's glaciers would vanish by 2100, contributing a 9-centimeter (3.5-inch) increase in sea levels. The study encompassed glaciers worldwide, excluding the massive ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. It simulated various climate scenarios, ranging from 1.5 to 4°C (2.7 to 5°F) of warming above pre-industrial levels.
If global temperatures rise by 2.7°C-the expected outcome based on climate commitments made at the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change's Conference of Parties (COP26)-the study predicts the complete disappearance of nearly all glaciers in Central Europe, western Canada, and the United States (including Alaska). At a 4°C increase, 80% of the world's glaciers will have vanished, contributing 15 centimeters (6 inches) to sea level rise.
Stark Warnings for Water Supply and Food Security
Both studies sounded a dire alarm about the ramifications of Himalayan glacier melt on water supply and food security. These glaciers act as a natural reservoir, storing water during winter and releasing it during the dry summer months when rainfall is scarce. Their decline could disrupt this seasonal cycle, leading to floods during the wet season and severe droughts in the dry season.
Methodology and Urgent Call for Action
The studies relied on satellite data from NASA's Terra satellite, Japan's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), as well as information from USGS-NASA Landsat 8 and ESA's Sentinel satellites. These sources enabled the mapping of over 95,000 glaciers and the modeling of their response to varying climate scenarios.
The research also factored in glacial debris cover, including materials like rocks, sediment, soot, dust, and volcanic ash found on glacier surfaces. The thickness of this debris layer can influence glacial melting, with thinner layers enhancing melting and thicker layers insulating and reducing it.
In response to these dire findings, the studies' authors called for immediate measures to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, emphasizing that while some glacier loss is inevitable, timely action can still make a significant difference.
Differences Between the Studies
The primary distinction between the two studies lies in their scope. The first study centered solely on the Himalayan glaciers, whereas the second study encompassed glaciers worldwide. Additionally, the first study utilized a higher resolution of satellite data, accounting for regional variations among glaciers. Meanwhile, the second study adopted a global average of glacier behavior.
In terms of scenarios, the first study projected glacier loss under two conditions: 1.5°C and 4°C of warming. In contrast, the second study explored four scenarios: 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.7°C, and 4°C of warming. While both studies yielded similar outcomes for Himalayan glaciers under comparable conditions, they exhibited variations in estimates for other regions. Notably, the second study forecasted a higher sea level rise due to glacier loss than the first study.
(Note: All the images are representational)
