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If you don't wear a mask while heading to the office in the morning, understand that you are falling prey to a silent killer. Yes, a silent killer that is air pollution. If you're sitting in an air-conditioned space thinking you're safe from the heat, remember that by the year 2100, 80 million people in India will be affected by extreme heatwaves, and you could be one of them. And if you're feeling proud of building a multi-million bungalow by the seashore, hear this: by 2100, 60 million people in India may fall victim to the devastation caused by rising sea levels.
These are not fear-inducing statistics, but the reality that has emerged from a report by the Lancet Planetary Health-Earth Commission.
India and the Global Environmental Boundaries: A Critical Crossroad
A recent report by Lancet Planetary Health-Earth Commission, released on Sep 12th, highlights a stark reality: nearly 1 billion people in India live on land that has diminished capacity to provide essential ecosystem services. These services, termed Nature's Contributions to People (NCP), encompass vital functions like pollination, water regulation, pest control, and soil protection. These contributions are being increasingly strained as India is pushed beyond the safe and just boundaries of Earth's systems, impacting the nation's capacity to support its population's well-being.
Ecosystem Integrity and NCP in Decline
The concept of biosphere integrity emphasizes the need for ecosystems to maintain their ability to contribute to human welfare. As ecosystems become degraded, their capacity to support agriculture, mitigate climate risks, and offer recreational spaces diminishes. In India, the report states that more than 75% of crucial food crops depend on animal pollination. This ecosystem service is critical for maintaining food security, particularly in a nation where agriculture is the backbone of the economy. Yet, the safe boundary for functional ecosystem integrity is threatened as India's landscapes continue to experience habitat degradation.
The study suggests that a minimum of 20-25% of semi-natural habitats per square kilometer in human-modified lands is essential to maintain biosphere integrity. This is increasingly difficult to achieve in densely populated areas like India. The degradation of pollinator habitats, the depletion of water resources, and the erosion of soil integrity are all contributing to a decline in the essential NCP that supports human life.
The Climate Crisis: A Looming Threat
India is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The report projects that under a 2°C global warming scenario, around 60 million Indians will be at risk from rising sea levels, and in a 1.5°C scenario, nearly 80 million people will experience extreme heat beyond the historically tolerable range for human habitation.
The notion of the "human climate niche," the range of temperatures within which human populations have thrived for thousands of years, is central to understanding the existential threat posed by climate change. As temperatures rise beyond this niche, India's population faces heightened risks from extreme heat events, which will be compounded by other environmental stressors. The report highlights that India could see some of the world's highest levels of wet bulb temperatures (WBT), a measure combining heat and humidity that determines the body's ability to cool itself. With WBTs exceeding safe limits, outdoor activities and labor will become increasingly perilous, endangering millions of workers and threatening the economy.
Nutrient Pollution: A Growing Health Hazard
The environmental boundaries related to nutrient pollution are also a major concern in India. Over 1 billion people are exposed to unsafe levels of nitrogen and phosphorus, critical nutrients for agriculture but harmful when present in excess. Nitrogen pollution, largely from fertilizers, causes eutrophication in water bodies, leading to harmful algal blooms that degrade water quality and destroy aquatic ecosystems. The report notes that freshwater nitrogen pollution is mainly driven by agriculture (about 75%), with domestic and industrial sources accounting for the remainder.
In addition to environmental degradation, nitrogen pollution also poses serious health risks. Contaminated drinking water can lead to conditions like infant methemoglobinemia, or "blue baby syndrome," and has been linked to diseases such as colorectal cancer and thyroid dysfunction. Meanwhile, phosphorus pollution, though less directly harmful to human health, disrupts aquatic ecosystems and food chains, threatening food security and livelihoods.
Aerosols and Air Pollution: A Silent Killer
India's struggle with air pollution is no secret, but the Lancet-Earth Commission report brings it into sharp focus. Over 1 billion people in India are exposed to harmful levels of PM2.5, fine particulate matter suspended in the air that is linked to respiratory diseases, cardiovascular conditions, and premature death. Globally, air pollution is the fourth leading health risk factor, and in India, it remains a persistent challenge.
Beyond human health, aerosols also have broader environmental consequences. They contribute to soil and water acidification, disrupt monsoon patterns, and exacerbate the effects of climate change. The report notes that anthropogenic aerosols may have weakened the Indian monsoon since the 1950s, with cascading effects on agriculture and water supply.
The Water Crisis: Surface and Groundwater Depletion
The degradation of India's blue water resources-both surface and groundwater-presents another alarming scenario. More than 800 million people in India are exposed to unsafe conditions related to blue water flows, driven by the over-extraction of groundwater and the diversion of surface water for agricultural and industrial use. India's reliance on irrigation, which accounts for about 70% of surface water withdrawals, is unsustainable. Excessive groundwater extraction is already causing land subsidence and increasing the risk of flooding in coastal regions, especially as sea levels continue to rise.
The report emphasizes the need for sustainable management of both surface and groundwater resources. The safe boundary for groundwater extraction, for example, dictates that annual withdrawals should not exceed the average annual recharge of aquifers. Exceeding this limit leads to aquifer depletion, reduced surface water flow, and increased vulnerability to environmental disasters.
Need A Call for Urgent Action
India is at a critical juncture in balancing human development with environmental sustainability. As the Lancet Planetary Health-Earth Commission report shows, the country's natural systems are being pushed beyond their capacity to provide essential services that support human well-being. Whether it is climate change, air pollution, nutrient pollution, or water scarcity, the pressures on India's ecosystems are immense and growing.
To secure a sustainable future, India must urgently strengthen its environmental policies, enforce pollution controls, and promote sustainable agricultural practices. Only by working within the Earth's safe and just boundaries can India hope to protect the well-being of its population and future generations.
