Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Lead IPCC Author stated in a report that..
Weather conditions in the ocean are very supportive for rapid intensification of the system.
Though the Bay of Bengal might have seen a decline in cyclogenesis but intensity of the
cyclones has increased manifold.
Models are unable to pick up this rapid intensification of cyclones because they do not include ocean conditions properly and that is their limitation.
Cyclones nowadays can retain their energy for quite a long number of days.
One example of this trend was Cyclone Amphan which continued to travel over land as a strong cyclone and resulted in massive devastation.
As long as oceans are warm and winds are favourable, cyclones will retain their intensity for a longer period.
Dr Koll further added, “The Bay of Bengal has been riding on the wave of global warming
during the past few decades.
Temperatures have been between 30-32 degrees Celsius in the Bay of Bengal.
These high temperatures play a very important role in the intensification of cyclonic storms as they infuse more convection.
This kind of rapid intensification has become frequent recently both in the Arabian Sea as well as in the Bay of Bengal